Sox 16, Rays 10

Ingenious. Tuesday night's 16-10 win over Tampa Bay went exactly according to a brilliant plan. Tim Wakefield used tremendous cunning to allow ten hits and seven runs in three innings. In his last two starts, Wakefield has pitched only 6.2 innings. He has allowed 19 hits and 13 runs in those two starts. In each start, he managed to avoid taxing himself too much, and he fooled the opposition into becoming complacent. The complacent opponents fell prey to the Red Sox offense both times, and potential playoff opponents have been fooled into thinking that Wakefield is not in top form. Those foolish enough to understimate Messrs. Wakefield and Matsuzaka will pay the price in the postseason.

With the Red Sox trailing 8-1, as play entered the bottom of the 4th, it was pretty obvious the Sox would come back. It was just a matter of how badly the Sox wanted to pummel the Rays. Apparently, they wanted to do quite a bit of pummeling. They outscored the Rays 15-2 the rest of the way. The Sox went an amazing 20 for 40 in the game, numbers that are rarely seen outside of Philadelphia. (Note: This statement is a reference to the vaunted Philadelphia Phillies offense, NOT the horrific Phillies pitching and/or their bandbox ballpark.) The Sox connected on four home runs, and eight of the nine starters had at least two hits. (Only catcher Kevin Cash, who belongs in AA, had less than two hits. But his 1 for 4 effort did increase his season average to from an unsightly .100 to a somewhat less unsightly .125. He is 3 for 24, with one extra-base hit, a double.)

It was a remarkable offensive explosion from a team that had been shut out on five hits the previous day. I totally saw it coming. I may have been reading The Hockey News as they began their inevitable comeback, but that was just a sign that I wasn't concerned about the deficit. AT ALL. If teams continue to underestimate the Sox, thinking a seven-run lead is sufficient, or that Wakefield and/or Cash are not good at baseball, those teams will continue to lose. Terry Francona and John Farrell know what they are doing...

Jon Lester goes for the Sox tonight, as they try to win the three-game series from Tampa. I expect another come-from-behind victory that will put the Sox' Baseball Prospectus odds of making the playoffs at over 110%. If we're lucky, we may even see Gagne and Papelbon close out the victory.

Ho hum, another Sox win

You had to know going into the game that the Sox were going to win. Wakefield is undefeated lifetime at Tropicana Field, and has gotten a decision in every start this season. The Devil Ray starter (Hammel) is sub-mediocre, and he's far better than any of those guys in the Tampa bullpen. The D-Ray bullpen had a 10.90 ERA in the last eighteen games going into this one, with a WHIP so obscene that I can't print it on this family blog. And to think that Tampa has a 13-man staff of craptacular crapitude. Yikes.

Of course there were more significant predictors of Soxian success that the above numbers. The new Friendly's Scoop was released today (with Papelbon and Snyder discussing the snappy dressing of Joel Piniero, and Papelbon demonstrating that he didn't know what angle the camera was pointed at), and the Sox never lose on Friendly's Scoop Day. The Heather Mitts Under Armour commercial was played more than the Foxwoods commercial, and also more than that horrific new W.B. Mason commercial. (That new W. B. ad will be giving me nightmares shortly.) Amalie Benjamin was flawless in the pre-game show, speaking on Curt Schilling's rehab (two AAA starts, eight shutout innings, four hits allowed, ten strikeouts), and when he will return to the rotation (likely August 5th or 6th, after one more AAA rehab start, and depending on if they want to give Josh Beckett an extra day of rest). The most significant predictor of all was the fact that the Devil Rays seemed like they'd rather be in the sewers of Manhattan, being pursued by Humanoid Pig Slaves, than be playing at home against the Red Sox. (They probably would have a better chance against the Humanoid Pig Slaves, the HPS's lack mobility, and don't seem to have much of a bullpen either.)

As for the actual game, Wakefield pitched well-six innings, one earned run on six hits and three walks, with seven strikeouts. Manny Delcarmen (two innings) and Kyle Snyder (one inning) shut out Tampa over the final three innings. Devil Ray batters had seven hits and nine strikeouts in the game. Kevin Youkilis had the big blow for the Sox, a three-run homer in the sixth inning. The Rays used three relievers with ERAs over 7.00, including old pal Casey Fossum. Fossum has a 7.71 ERA, with a stratospheric 1.78 WHIP (approaching J. C. Romero territory there) in 72.1 innings. Opposing batters are hitting .339 against him, with a .938 OPS. It's surprising that he has been allowed to pitch so many ineffective innings. Until you look at the rest of the Devil Rays bullpen. Then, it's not actually all that surprising. Hammel did pitch pretty well for Tampa. He left the game without allowing a run, on one hit and two walks in 5.1 innings. But his bullpen allowed two of his runners to score, giving him the L. The Sox actually trailed (1-0) until the sixth inning, but the result never really seemed to be in doubt.

The Sox face the Rays in the second game of the series Saturday night, with Jon Lester making his second start of the season. He is opposed by James Shields, who has pitched very well for the Rays (and my fantasy team) until his last few starts (6.82 ERA in July). He was torched last Sunday by the Yankees (10 ER on 10 H, in 3.1 IP), single-handedly costing me two places in the my league's standings. (Curses!) Saturday, he will be in the dugout on my fantasy bench (I don't typically use pitchers starting against the Sox or Phillies), and will probably in the dugout on the non-fantasy bench after a few innings against the Sox bats. Lester should pick up another W, before he returns to Pawtucket to make room for Curt Schilling later in the week.