The Origins of Ruin

Excellent win by the Sox tonight, 3-2 in Texas. Curt Schilling pitched 7 extremely effective innings, allowing only 1 run on 4 hits.His command was excellent, but he probably should have shaved some of that scruff, considering that this was a nationally televised matchup. Hopefully, he will analyze his decision-making process on that in his next blog post. David Ortiz finally hit his 1st HR, then hit his 2nd HR in his next AB.

In a progressive move by Terry Francona, Closer/Jedi Jonathan Papelbon was called on with one out in the 8th, the tying run in on base, and the middle of the Rangers order due up. Closer Boy was lights out, getting the final 5 outs (3 K) without difficulty. I like the Jamesian thinking by Francona, bringing JP into the game in the 8th, in a higher leverage situation, instead of going "by the book" and waiting until the 9th to utilize Papelbon. With an off day tomorrow, and a light workload over the past week, this was probably as good a time to use JP for a 5 out save as you will see. I just hope Francona doesn't, as a result of the shortcomings of JP's bullpen mates, use Papelbon for more than an inning too often. JP's fantasy baseball owners might not like seeing him work out of a jam in the 8th, only to see Romero, or somebody, pick up the save by facing the bottom of the order in the 9th, but if that's the best way for the Sox to win, I'm all for it. (Plus, I also have Putz and Nathan for saves on my Papelbonian fantasy team.) Jonathan won't mind if he loses a few saves to secure wins for the Sox, as he is the consummate team player. (And also because his contractural incentives are tied to Duck Kills, not Saves.)

The Sox lost a crappy game on Saturday night, with Batshit Crazy Tavarez pitching ineffectively, and not doing anything notably insane to make up for his poor pitching. The Phillies dropped to 1-4 on the young season, combining poor starting pitching, minimal clutch hitting, and miscellaneous acts of crappyness to drop games in Florida on Saturday night and Sunday afternoon.

The Sox and Phils have had some positives in the early going, but I have seen some troubling concerns that could be the "Origins of Ruin" for these projected contenders.

The Sox have a front 3 (Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka) in their rotation that could be extremely strong. I wouldn't be surprised to see the trio combine for more than 45 wins this season. But Tim Wakefield would be better cast as a #5- his value is mostly derived from his ability to eat innings. Most of Julian Tavarez' value is derived from his ability to engage in the shenanigans,he's not going to eat too many innings. It wouldn't be surprising to have Tavarez and Snyder split the 1st 7 innings in each of Tavarez' starts. The Sox might be better served with Tavarez in the pen, and Hansack serving as the 5th starter, at least until it is Lester Time.

The black hole that is the bottom 3rd of the Sox lineup also has to be a cause for concern. That kind of thing might fly with an NL small market team hoping to possibly contend in 2012, but for the Red Sox, not so much. Jason Varitek, even considering his strong glove and leadership abilities, needs to do much better than a .125 average. (There is a small sample size here, obviously, but his .238 average in 365 ABs in 2006 wasn't so hot, either.) Coco Crisp is up to a .150 average, with a 1 for 3 night tonight. I'd like to see Wily Mo Pena start getting more ABs, despite his defensive shortcomings. While 2B/Hobbit Dustin Pedrois is currently batting .313, I don't think the wee lil' guy is going to be hitting that well for very long. I hope that he is replaced by a more capable vet by midseason, even if the acquistion cost is Manny Delcarmen. Relying so heavily on the top of the order to produce the offense, could prove to be problematic over a long season, especially if there are any injury issues to the top of the order.

The biggest Phillies concern right now has to be the fact they they don't actually seem to have a bullpen. Flash Gordon seems to be on borrowed time, and he is the best the Phillies have, at least until the inevitable Flash breakdown. In which case Madson would probably close games? Yikes.

While the Phils offense has been pretty good, in terms of getting on base, the scoring after getting on base hasn't worked out too well. They are missing too many opportunites by not hitting well with runners on base (with the exception of Patrick Brian Burrell, who is an offensive juggernaut in all situations)- the LOB/game is quite bad. They have consistently missed opportunities to score in the early innings, fallen behind, and fallen just short in their attempts to come back.

The Phillies have also been hurt by the random acts of stupidity. Bad baserunning, poor situational hitting, and fielding lapses have really hurt them. Helms, Rowand, Howard, and Werth seem like they are swimming out there in the field. Not graceful and fluid Baywatch-type swimming. The haphazard, unathletic SexyDrownWatch kind. A contending team doesn't give up so many extra outs on defense, and takes advantage of the extra outs gifted them by the opposition.

The Phillies are in New York Monday afternoon, with Cole Hamels facing the Mets. The Sox have an off day, before sending Josh Beckett to the mound in the Tuesday Home Opener against Seattle.

In quite possibly the most exciting release last week (even more exciting than the release of Dustin Hermanson by the Reds), progressive metal stalwarts Redemption debuted their 3rd album, "The Origins of Ruin." A superb Papelbon-esque effort, well worth checking out.