An Effective Fifth Starter's Start

The unthinkable happened Sunday. Jonathan Robert Papelbon allowed three "hits" and an earned run. It was the second time this season in which a Papelbon appearance included scoring by the opposition. Twice. In the same season.

DO NOT BE ALARMED! First off, it was a non-save situation. The Sox didn't lose, or anything crazy like that. (Now, THAT would be unthinkable.) Secondly, the "hits" were crap. Edgar Renteria dunked a weak bloop into short RF, that somehow fell between Pedroia, Crisp, and Drew for a wussy little single. Renteria then took off for second, as an indifferent Varitek allowed him the base. There was a second crappy single, in which the bat was, literally, split into pieces by the immense firepower of the Red Sox' 2nd best foosball player. Later, there was another single, this one was struck well, on a Pap slider. Everyone else- WHIFF CITY. Papelbon struck out the side with a ferocious mid-90's heater. Despite being touched for a meaningless run, which increased his ERA to a still-Papelbonian 1.76, Closer Boy was his usual dominant self. You can rest assured that he will be ready for the impending series against the fading Yankees. It doesn't seem likely that New York will be within three (or ten) runs in the 9th inning of any of the games. But Jonathan will probably come in for a scoreless inning in a non-save situation to get some work in/get his ERA under 1.70.

Kason Gabbard, called up from Pawtucket to make a spot start, pitched five-plus strong innings. He was charged with only two earned runs, both scoring after Brendan Donnelly was called into the game in the 6th. Donnelly seemed to be wearing Detroit Tiger SP Nate Robertson's spectacles, which may have adversely affected his effectiveness. Donnelly's sub-par outing (4 batters faced, 2 hits/1 walk allowed, 1 K) raised Gabbard's ERA from 0.00 to 3.60. Still, it was quite a satisfactory "5th starter's performance" by the 25 year old lefty. (Note: A certain Extra Bases blogger recently referred to a start by Julian Tavarez, in which he allowed ten hits and four earned runs in five innings, as a good "5th starter's performance." But, considering Batshit Crazy's ERA for that appearance was 7.20, it doesn't seem there was anything "good" about it.)

After watching Gabbard silence the Braves' bats today, I wondered what the Sox' record would be had he been in the rotation all season. So I ran a statistical simulation from the start of the season, with Gabbard taking all of Tavarez' starts, and Tavarez working out of the bullpen. The resulting predicted record for the Sox: 43-0. Even though Tavarez was projected to receive a ten game suspension for an incident involving poisoned darts, the simulation predicted that Sox would be undefeated with Gabbard as the 5th starter. Of course, the Manny-Batshit Love in the Dugout incident would never have occurred in this scenario. So there are pros and cons. (Note: I ran the same simulation with Papelbon in the rotation, and the result was a 58-0 record for the Sox. In 43 games.)

The game was delayed two and a half hours from the start. As a result, I only missed the first inning. However, the Sox scored four of their six runs in that inning. All four runs scored almost immediately after I crossed over from the highway into Somerville, a sudden outburst by the Sox that sometimes occurs as a direct result of my driving patterns. Jason Varitek (.280) had the big blow, a two-out triple, which cleared the loaded bases. The Sox have won seven of their last ten, building up some momentum as they enter their series in New York. Not that they need any momentum against the 19-23 Yankees, winners of three of their last ten.